The WNBA's Connecticut Sun and Phoenix Mercury will face off again on Sunday, July 19, 2026, in a highly anticipated rematch. The Sun's recent surge in form and the Mercury's struggles make this game an intriguing contest with potential upset value.
The Sun's Resilience and Momentum
Connecticut's Sun have been on a roll lately, winning five of their past eight games and pulling off a +154 upset against the Mercury on Friday. Their 14-11 against the spread this season showcases their ability to perform under pressure. The team's offensive prowess is evident with an 80.4 points per game average, ranking 14th in the league, and they've been over the game total in 14 of their 25 games. However, their defensive shortcomings, particularly in three-point percentage, could be a concern.
Key Players to Watch
Brittney Griner, with her 13.8 points and 5.7 rebounds per game, is a force to be reckoned with. Leila Lacan's 13.3 points and 4.6 assists, along with Aneesah Morrow's 10.5 points and 9.4 rebounds, form a solid core. However, Morrow's leg strain and other injuries to Aaliyah Edwards and Saniya Rivers could impact the team's performance.
Mercury's Struggles and Injuries
The Mercury, on the other hand, are facing a five-game losing streak and a WNBA-worst 10-16 record against the spread. Their 83.3 points per game average and 12th-place ranking in offensive rating suggest a team that can score, but their defensive struggles, giving up 87.6 points per game, are a cause for concern. Kahleah Copper and Alyssa Thomas provide offensive firepower, but the team's overall performance has been inconsistent.
Recent Head-to-Head Results
The Sun's recent dominance in this series is notable, having won seven of the last nine games. Their ability to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games and their recent form against Eastern Conference opponents bodes well for their chances. The Mercury's struggles against Eastern Conference teams and their inability to cover the spread in recent games further emphasize the Sun's potential for an upset.
Conclusion and Prediction
Despite the Mercury's recent form, the Sun's momentum, home-court advantage, and recent head-to-head success make them strong favorites. The Mercury's defensive issues and inability to contain the Sun's offensive firepower suggest a continuation of the Sun's winning streak. The Sun's Moneyline (+150) at DraftKings Sportsbook seems like an attractive bet, especially given their recent performance and the Mercury's struggles.
In my opinion, the Sun's resilience, combined with the Mercury's recent form, makes this a game worth backing. The Sun's ability to capitalize on the Mercury's weaknesses and their own recent success could lead to a memorable upset.
